Strategic Investments in China’s Robotics Supply Chain
The recent report by Goldman Sachs highlights a remarkable trend among key players in the Chinese humanoid robot supply chain, who are making significant “preemptive” investments in manufacturing capabilities. This strategy is a calculated gamble on reaching a production tipping point by the second half of 2026. Based on surveys conducted with nine Chinese supply chain companies, including Sanhua and Tuopu Group, from November 3 to 6, 2025, the report sheds light on a “productivity-first” approach being adopted.
Driving Forces Behind the Investments
These suppliers are ambitiously planning an annual production capacity ranging from 100,000 to 1 million robots, although none have yet confirmed any large-scale orders or explicit production timelines. Nevertheless, their confidence signals an expectation of burgeoning demand, particularly from notable robotics clients such as Tesla, XPeng, Zhiyuan (AgiBot), and Leju Robot. By investing in land, factories, and production lines ahead of time, they exhibit a strong belief in an explosive growth in demand.
Industry Growth and Potential Risks
Despite these optimistic outlooks, the strategy carries inherent risks of capacity underutilization if orders are not received as expected. The planned production volumes appear particularly bold when contrasted with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of global humanoid robot shipments reaching just 1.38 million units by 2035.
Adopting a Phased Expansion Approach
To mitigate immediate risks, most suppliers are adhering to a “gradual scale-up” strategy, intending to scale production lines according to actual order placements. The report indicates a significant evolution in the value creation chain, noting a shift by suppliers from producing individual components to delivering integrated modular solutions that combine actuators, sensors, and structural elements.
Impact on Global Robotics Landscape
This expansion could reshape the global landscape of the robotics industry, positioning China as a leader in humanoid robot manufacturing. The move aligns with current industry trends pushing towards increased automation and integration, hinting at a transformative period just around the corner.
