This Year AI PCs Will Occupy Only 2% of the Market, But in Four Years, it’s Projected to be 64%

AI PC market set for massive expansion by 2028

As personal computers equipped with localized artificial intelligence (AI) systems enter the market, market observers are steadily raising their forecasts for the technology’s expansion. Experts at Morgan Stanley predict that while such AI PC’s will claim just 2% of the market in 2022, their share will rocket to 64% by 2028.

Corporate demand to drive growth

Morgan Stanley believes, along with many other experts, that corporate users will be the major adopters of AI PC’s. Straightaway, business users are inclined towards boosting performance – a key feature that AI systems offer. The average cost of such PC’s will not be less than $1,000, leading to limited demand from private customers.

Increase in AI in Corporate IT Infrastructure

The firm notes that the corporate PC landscape has grown by 13% since the pre-Covid era. It further suggests that the impending end of Windows 10 support in October the following year will trigger a large-scale equipment renewal cycle within corporate sectors. According to surveys, 75% of corporate leaders in the US and Europe plan to purchase PCs equipped with AI capabilities.

Forecast: Steady Rise in AI PC Market Share

Morgan Stanley’s forecast for the current year suggests AI PC’s will not exceed 2% of the global PC market. They expect a substantial growth to 16% in the following year, reaching 28% by the year after. By 2027, it is set to approach 48%, eventually hitting 64% in 2028. Meanwhile, the overall PC market has yet to fully recover from the pandemic disruption. While 343 million PCs were shipped in 2021, this dropped to 284 million in 2022, and further decreased to 247 million last year.

Shift from Cloud Computing to Local Processing

Over the next three years, the trend of transferring some of the AI systems’ computational load to local PC processors is expected to reduce reliance on cloud infrastructure. This trend will be more prominent within corporate sectors interested in reducing latency in processing requests and, more importantly, desiring local processing of sensitive information for security reasons. Dell’s management believes that local processing of logical conclusion-based requests will be 75% cheaper than turning to the cloud. According to Michael Dell, corporate sector representatives, on the basis of a recent survey, will aim to shift computational loads from the cloud to local infrastructure in 83% of cases this year.