Last week, a forward-looking assessment of TSMC’s revenue dynamics for the past quarter was assembled as the revenue data for each month of the period was already known. In addition to revenue stabilizing at levels comparable to the corresponding quarter of 2022, TSMC could have seen a 23% decrease in net profit, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.
At least, that is the opinion of 20 analysts providing comments to LSEG SmartEstimate ahead of the publication of TSMC’s quarterly report scheduled for the upcoming Thursday. According to experts’ estimates, the company’s net profit has been decreasing for three consecutive quarters, and in the past reporting period, it should have reduced by 23% year-on-year to $7.21 billion.
Recalling that TSMC’s revenue for the past quarter should have been $20.1 billion, barely exceeding the level of the same period of the previous year ($19.93 billion). If this figure reaches the mentioned value, it would exceed not only TSMC’s own expectations but also analysts’ forecasts. Demand for smartphones and PCs started to weaken in the second half of 2022, but analysts anticipate a rebound this year. Therefore, investors’ attention in TSMC’s quarterly earnings conference will be focused on the company management’s forecasts for the current year. Representatives from KGI Securities, for example, expect a 24–26% increase in TSMC’s revenue this year because of the revival in consumer markets, the proliferation of 5G networks, and the development of the high-performance computing segment, mainly driven by artificial intelligence.
TSMC’s shares have already risen in price by 32% in 2023, while on average, securities in the technology segment have appreciated by 27%. The future trajectory of TSMC’s share price will largely depend on the forecasts from the company’s management announced this week.
